Brett Kollmann
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Week 5 NFL Game Picks!
🕑 Added 2020-10-11 07:19:15 +0000 UTCWeek five features a ton of hard-hitting, "meat and potatoes" kinds of games - Browns vs Colts, Seahawks vs Vikings, Bills vs Titans - my favorite type of matchups! A lot of key questions will be answered this Sunday, especially when it comes to sorting out who truly has elite offensive lines or front sevens, and who doesn't.
If you love trench warfare, this is the week for you! Now let's get into these picks, shall we?
GAME PICK RECORD: 41-21-1
SPREAD PICK RECORD: 32-26-5 (50.8% win rate vs the spread)
BUCCANEERS @ BEARS (TNF)
GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS
SPREAD PICK (from Thursday): BUCCANEERS (-3.5)
JAGUARS @ TEXANS
GAME PICK: TEXANS
SPREAD PICK: JAGUARS (+6)
ANALYSIS: I do believe that the Texans will ultimately win this game after shedding the dead weight that is Bill O’Brien, but it’s going to be a slog from start to finish. The Texans run defense is absolutely pitiful – as in HISTORICALLY pitiful. They are currently averaging 182 yards per game on the ground against them so far this season, which would be far worse than any other run defense in the NFL over the last 15 years. They can’t tackle, they can’t get off blocks – it’s all just…awful. James Robinson is likely to have a big day on the ground, which will probably keep this game close while Deshaun Watson does his usual weekly routine of carrying this team all by his damn self.
BENGALS @ RAVENS
GAME PICK: RAVENS
SPREAD PICK: RAVENS (-11.5)
ANALYSIS: The Bengals defensive line is surprisingly stout, but their run defense is still well below average overall because their linebackers have been absolutely *awful* so far this season. They’ve been slow to read and react, soft on contact, and pretty poor in coverage as well. I expect the Ravens to exploit these young linebackers all game long with straight up downhill physicality (have you ever seen these guys try to tackle? It ain't pretty).
On the flip side, Joe Burrow is in for a world of hurt against the Ravens’ relentless pressure. He’ll probably be able to make a few incredible escapes and throws on the run (as he does every week), but with the state of the Bengals’ offensive line I just can’t see Burrow being able to keep up blow for blow with this Baltimore offense. If he gets sacked four or fewer times, I would consider that a good day for Cincinnati’s offense.
PANTHERS @ FALCONS
GAME PICK: PANTHERS
SPREAD PICK: PANTHERS (+2.5)
ANALYSIS: Don’t look now, but the Panthers have one of the best young defensive lines in the NFL. Brian Burns and Yetur Gross-Matos have two of the highest pressure-per-snap rates in the league, while rookie nose tackle Derrick Brown is starting to show off just how ridiculously powerful he is against the run. Carolina’s secondary and linebacking corps is still very, very hit or miss (especially in coverage), but I personally think that defensive line is so damn talented that their defense is still dangerous no matter what. Will the Falcons still throw the ball all over the yard? Sure, probably. Will Matt Ryan get the absolute shit beat out of him in the process? Definitely.
When it comes to the Panthers offense, Joe Brady is already proving himself to be a very good play caller. Teddy Bridgewater is playing as well as he *ever* has in this familiar Sean Payton-esque West Coast system, and he clearly already has full command at the line of scrimmage to get in and out of plays as he sees fit. I suppose already knowing all of the terminology for this offense after playing in New Orleans has really benefited him. Overall, I expect Carolina to be able to move the ball just as effectively, if not MORE effectively than Atlanta, while also having just enough juice on defense to force a turnover or two that will make all the difference. Give me the Panthers on the upset here.
RAIDERS @ CHIEFS
GAME PICK: CHIEFS
SPREAD PICK: RAIDERS (+11)
ANALYSIS: I fully expect the Chiefs to win this game, but the Raiders should still give them one hell of a fight – even through all of their injuries. Trent Brown should be back in the starting lineup, as will Henry Ruggs, and that’s great news for the Vegas run game. Brown is one of the best right tackles in the league, while Ruggs provides a key component to the Raiders run game from a schematic perspective as a misdirection piece on sweeps and end arounds. Coach Gruden has done an excellent job using motion to help pull defenses apart and open up lanes for Josh Jacobs, and Ruggs’ speed being back on the field is a big part of that motion being so effective.
I expect the Raiders to run the ball *a lot* to try to keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and shorten this game as much as possible. They executed that exact game plan last September almost to perfection before a freakishly disastrous second quarter for their defense put the game out of reach. In my opinion, it’s worth it to try again and hope for a better result in round two. If their defense can just generate one turnover, or get a couple good stops, this offense might have a chance of controlling the game enough to eek out a win. Worst case scenario though, I can at least envision the Raiders covering that huge 11-point spread.
CARDINALS @ JETS
GAME PICK: CARDINALS
SPREAD PICK: CARDINALS (-7.5)
ANALYSIS: I’m a Texans fan and even I look at the Jets with pity. I’m honestly surprised this spread is not double digits. Why does Adam Gase still have a job, anyway?
EAGLES @ STEELERS
GAME PICK: STEELERS
SPREAD PICK: STEELERS (-7.5)
ANALYSIS: Poor Carson Wentz…the formidable Steelers front seven is now well-rested and hungry for blood after an unexpected week off, and the Eagles offensive line is already down two starters to injury. Jordan Mailata had a fantastic game last week against the 49ers, but he’s going to have to deal with T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, and Cam Heyward this Sunday – a far cry from the battered and broken 49ers defensive line from last week that was missing both Nick Bosa and Dee Ford due to injuries. I think Wentz is going to get lit up early and often by this Steelers pass rush, while Miles Sanders fights for his life just to get back to the line of scrimmage on half of his runs.
Pittsburgh’s defense is legit, and their offense is finally starting to click in the passing game. Bet against them at your own risk.
RAMS @ WASHINGTON
GAME PICK: RAMS
SPREAD PICK: WASHINGTON (+7.5)
ANALYSIS: Chase Young should be back for this Washington defense, which is huge. He’s a fantastic edge setter on early downs, and an even better pass rusher on third downs. Just his mere presence on the field alone makes me slightly more confident in Washington’s defense to slow down the Rams. The Football Team’s linebacker situation is still murky at best, but as long as the defensive line can stay gap sound and funnel the Rams’ trio of running backs exactly where they want them to go, the linebackers should be able to just get downhill while reading the defensive line’s leverages, and not have to worry about making mental errors (which they normally do, A LOT). I suppose we’ll see how that matchup plays out, but consider me fascinated.
On the other side of the ball, I’m also very curious about Kyle Allen. He was extremely turnover prone during his time in Carolina, and personally I felt like his pocket presence left a lot to be desired. If he is improved in that area and can avoid those disastrous sacks and fumbles that plagued him last year, then sure, I could see Washington potentially keeping this game very close…but all of that is a big “if”.
Overall, I expect the Rams to win, but probably by five or six points, rather than eight or nine. It all comes down to if Washington can slow down the run with Young back in the lineup.
DOLPHINS @ 49ERS
GAME PICK: 49ERS
SPREAD PICK: DOLPHINS (+8)
ANALYSIS: This is a sneaky close game, in my opinion. Yes, Jimmy Garoppolo is back, and yes, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel will be playing as well, but this Dolphins secondary is also returning Byron Jones. He played all of one series so far this season before he pulled a groin against Buffalo, and Jones is just *finally* getting back on the field now. His addition will be huge for an already talented secondary, and I actually think that these young (and smaller) 49ers receivers are going to really struggle to get open in this game against Miami’s constant press coverage.
If I were Kyle Shanahan, I would emphasize staying in 21 and 12 personnel groupings as much as possible, because the Dolphins defense is much more vulnerable through the air by attacking Eric Rowe with George Kittle, or attacking Elandon Roberts with…well…anyone. And if they really want to get the receivers involved, just emphasize stacks or bunches that can back these big corners off and make them play in space. That’s really Deebo and Aiyuk’s only shot to get decent separation, in my opinion.
This is going to be a really hard-fought, defensive kind of game in my opinion, but in the end Kittle is going to be the deciding factor. If you thought his 15-183-1 stat line from last week against Philly was impressive, he may very well equal it this week against Miami.
GIANTS @ COWBOYS
GAME PICK: COWBOYS
SPREAD PICK: GIANTS (+8.5)
ANALYSIS: The Cowboys are the weirdest team in the NFL. They have a good quarterback, explosive receivers, and one of the most reliable running backs of the last decade…but at the same time they have a banged up offensive line, a horrible defense, and a coaching staff that somehow struggles with situational football. They have a great main course, but absolutely no side dishes, and they will lose a ton of games this season because of it. I fully expect this young Giants team to keep this game WAY closer than it has any right to be, simply because the Cowboys can’t stop turning the ball over…and when they DO turn the ball over, they almost automatically give up points immediately after.
Every single mistake Dallas makes is always harshly punished because of their complete lack of discipline and effort on defense, and it makes Dak Prescott’s margin for error razor thin. Daniel Jones may be the clearly inferior quarterback in this matchup, but at least his defense has been giving him some chances to *almost* win games. I cannot say the same for Prescott.
This game is going to be a sloppy, but still captivating mess of a contest that fully encapsulates the NFC East experience that we have all come to know and love…or hate…take your pick.
COLTS @ BROWNS
GAME PICK: BROWNS
SPREAD PICK: BROWNS (PK)
ANALYSIS: This is the best game of the week, in my opinion. Elite run defense vs elite rushing offense. Phenomenal offensive line vs bloodthirsty front seven. Pure trench warfare – that’s my kind of game. If the Colts were fully healthy, I would probably favor them to win this pickem (per Bovada), but since both Anthony Castonzo and Darius Leonard will be out, I’m going with Cleveland instead. Colts backup left tackle Le’Raven Clark vs Myles Garrett is a nightmare matchup for Indy any way you slice it, and Leonard is a key cog in that tremendous Colts defense. Both of these guys will be sorely missed.
When it comes to Leonard specifically, he’s the straw that stirs the drink in that front seven, so to speak. DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart sure do create a ton of havoc up front, but it’s Leonard’s responsibility to always be playing off of their aggression and getting himself into the right spots to cover up left over gaps. His instincts and range are so instrumental in allowing that defensive line to play fast and loose, and I just do not think that Anthony Walker or Bobby Okereke can perform that same role for them with the same proficiency. Leonard’s presence allows everyone else to take risks because he could always cover up for them if those risks turned into mistakes…but now he’s gone.
I think we are going to see a few more creases in this Colts defense than we’re used to seeing, and eventually those creases are going to give way to a big play or two for Cleveland – especially with Kareem Hunt in the backfield. In a game like this, those one or two big plays could really be all it takes to decide the winner. I’ll go with Browns 20 – Colts 17.
VIKINGS @ SEAHAWKS
GAME PICK: SEAHAWKS
SPREAD PICK: VIKINGS (+7)
ANALYSIS: The Vikings are a fantastic run blocking unit up front, and Dalvin Cook is a tackle-breaking machine…but the Seahawks are a top three rushing defense and a miss fewer tackles than almost any other unit. Something has got to give here. Just like the Colts vs Browns matchup I just talked about, a key defensive injury – Jamal Adams – might be the main difference maker in this strength vs strength matchup.
If Adams were on the field, I would probably predict a two possession win for Seattle simply because they could take away Minnesota’s dangerous run game while unleashing that scorched-earth passing offense with Wilson, Metcalf, and Lockett. But without Adams? Well, now I’m not so sure.
The Seahawks gave up 103 yards on the ground last week with Jamal not on the field – well above their season average of 76 – and that was against *The Dolphins*. I think we could very well see Cook and company rack up 125, or even 150 yards rushing in this game with Adams still on the sidelines; and if Minnesota is having that much success running the ball and chewing clock, they might just be able to play keep away from Russell Wilson long enough to steal this game on the road.
Will Minnesota win? Probably not. Will they be able to run the ball effectively enough to shorten the game and keep it within a touchdown? I think they will, at least. The over/under for this matchup is 57 points…I’m betting the under on that one, personally.
BRONCOS @ PATRIOTS
GAME PICK:
SPREAD PICK:
ANALYSIS: Will be written in the morning when we have more clarity on injuries/Covid statuses.
CHARGERS @ SAINTS
GAME PICK: SAINTS
SPREAD PICK: CHARGERS (+7)
ANALYSIS: Justin Herbert has gotten steadily better so far this season, and he is coming off (in my opinion) the best game he’s ever played - college or pro. I think if the Chargers continue to emphasize the bootleg game and deep shots off of play action, it will really help to keep Herbert from making too many mistakes. Simplifying these half field reads and just requiring him to read only one safety is the way to go. Well done by Anthony Lynn (so far, at least).
On the other side, while I do believe the Saints will still win just on the strength of their run game and their experienced defense vs a young QB, not having Michael Thomas on the field is still going to be a huge blow to their offense. The Chargers secondary is extremely talented, and Thomas was one of New Orleans’ only reliable weapons to win these one on ones. I think this could end up being a fairly low-scoring game, and I doubt either team wins by more than 3 or 4 points.
BILLS @ TITANS
GAME PICK: BILLS
SPREAD PICK: BILLS (-3.5)
ANALYSIS: Josh Allen is playing like a man possessed, and the Titans just *barely* started practicing again after having more than two weeks off. There’s a fine line between fresh legs and rust, and I expect the Titans to be rusty as hell in this game.
Under normal circumstances I would probably see this matchup as a dead heat (especially with how Tannehill, Henry, and Jeffrey Simmons we’re playing), and maybe if they meet again in January it will be...but for now, give me the red hot Bills winning in convincing fashion over a Titans squad that may take some time to get back in their groove.
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Week 6
Hail Mary from Mr. Kollmann?
