Brett Kollmann
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NFL Week 10 Game Picks!
🕑 Added 2020-11-15 08:16:48 +0000 UTCGAME PICK RECORD: 85-48-1
SPREAD PICK RECORD: 66-60-6 (52.4% win rate vs the spread so far. 55% is considered a top-tier hit rate, for reference)
COLTS vs TITANS
GAME PICK (from Thursday): COLTS
SPREAD PICK (from Thursday): COLTS (PK)
TEXANS vs BROWNS
GAME PICK: BROWNS
SPREAD PICK: BROWNS (-4)
ANALYSIS: The Browns are the healthiest they have been since September with the return of All-Pro caliber players like Wyatt Teller and Nick Chubb, and it just so happens that the Texans defense is one of the very worst against the run in the entire league. Houston is 28thin rushing defense DVOA, and are dead last in rush yards allowed per game (159). I would expect Cleveland to lean HARD on that deadly run game this week, especially with some bad weather expected, and ultimately the Texans will probably fall behind and be slowly suffocated for four straight quarters. It is possible that Deshaun Watson and Will Fuller might be able to keep Houston in this game all by themselves against a rather porous Browns pass defense, but I think Cleveland is the safer bet here. They are healthier, tougher, and just flat out the better-coached team.
FOOTBALL TEAM vs LIONS
GAME PICK: LIONS
SPREAD PICK: LIONS (-3)
ANALYSIS: Don’t get me wrong, the Lions have *not* been a good team without Kenny Golladay this year (he will miss his fourth game of the year this week), but for as bad as the Lions have been, Washington has been (mostly) worse. The Football Team has the worst passing offense in the league by DVOA, their offensive line has been brutally awful, their linebackers have been average *at best* at stopping the run, and basically the only things the team has going for them at all are Terry McLaurin and a very good pass rush – that’s about it. Were it not for the NFC East being terrible this year, they would still probably be a winless team.
On the other side, the Lions *also* have a very below average defense, particularly against the run, and without Golladay and possibly even Hockenson (toe injury) on the field I don’t really like their offense much either. No matter what, I expect this game to be ugly on both sides. It is the very definition of the stoppable force vs the movable object. And in games like this one where neither team really has much going for them at all, I tend to just pick the better quarterback and call it a day. I’ll put my chips on Matthew Stafford to win this one.
BUCCANEERS vs PANTHERS
GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS
SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (-6)
ANALYSIS: Teddy Bridgewater is one of the best play action quarterbacks in the league so far this season (12th in passer rating and 5 of his 11 TDs on play action passes), but he has been fairly bad when under pressure (21st in passer rating, and 5 of his 6 INTs this season under pressure). With the Panthers relying so much on the run game and the play action passing game to keep the offense moving, I expect the Buccaneers to bring the exact same blitz-heavy gameplan that they employed against the Packers a few weeks ago where they constantly brought five or six rushers and played the run “on the way to the quarterback”, so to speak.
With so much pressure constantly getting thrown at Bridgewater, I think Tampa can force him into a couple of critical mistakes to possibly steal a possession or two, and that will likely be all they need to pull away and put this game to bed. Yes, I know that there is a narrative of the Bucs being “tired” because their flight into Charlotte was delayed by almost eight hours last night so they did not land until close to midnight, but at the end of the day I don’t expect that delay to affect them too much. Tampa is still the better team here with the better quarterback, the better offensive line, the better defense, and the more proven coaching staff. I LOVE the Panthers’ future, don’t get me wrong, but I just don’t think that they have quite enough juice yet to overcome an extremely talented Bucs team that is out for blood after a rough primetime loss last week. Pressure, pressure, pressure – that’s the name of the game here.
EAGLES vs GIANTS
GAME PICK: EAGLES
SPREAD PICK: GIANTS (+4)
ANALYSIS: The Eagles are…starting to get healthy for once? Really? In an odd twist of fate, the only Eagle listed as “out” for this game is Craig James, which is a refreshingly light injury report, while other starters and key depth like Lane Johnson, Miles Sanders, Alshon Jeffrey, and Malik Jackson, and Jack Driscoll were all listed as full go and are ready to play. If Philly can stave off their injury woes (which is a BIG “if”, I know), I still believe that they are the most talented team in the NFC East.
Travis Fulham and Jalen Reagor are a very exciting young receiver duo, they still have Dallas Goedert at tight end, Sanders and Scott at running back, and the offensive line on paper isn’t *that* bad if Peters and Johnson could just play a full game without aggravating any injuries. Throw in a still-very-deep defensive line rotation that has the potential to jump all over Daniel Jones early and often, and I like Philly’s chances here.
Does the Giants’ defensive line deserve more credit for keeping Big Blue in games damn near by itself this year? Yes, absolutely. Will that D-Line be enough to win them their third divisional game in five weeks? No, I don’t believe it will be. I think the Giants can certainly cover here in a very close loss, barring a total meltdown by Daniel Jones (again), but I just don’t see them outright winning.
JAGUARS vs PACKERS
GAME PICK: PACKERS
SPREAD PICK: JAGUARS (+14)
ANALYSIS: Believe it or not, it is the Jaguars – NOT the Seahawks – that have the worst passing defense DVOA in the league at 36.5%. For reference, there have only been two defenses in the last DECADE to post a worse DVOA than that – the 2015 Saints, and the 2019 Dolphins. They aren’t just bad, they are RIDICULOUSLY bad, and part of the reason for that is that they try to play man coverage more than anyone else in the league (49.7%), while not having enough good DBs to actually get away with playing man coverage in the first place.
Against a quarterback like Aaron Rodgers and a receiver like Davante Adams, if you try to play man *that much*, it’s almost guaranteed that they will shred you. I fully expect the Packers to jump out to an early lead here on the back of a monstrous first half performance by Adams, and I don’t anticipate that Jake Luton will be able to claw his way back into it – even against a pretty below average Packers defense. Give me the Jaguars to (barely) cover here just because the spread is so huge and it’s tough for any team in the NFL to reliably pay up on -14, especially since the second half of the game might have a bit of ugly weather…but I just don’t think Jacksonville has a chance to outright win.
BILLS vs CARDINALS
GAME PICK: BILLS
SPREAD PICK: BILLS (+3)
ANALYSIS: Speaking of playing a metric shit-ton of man coverage, the Cardinals play man at the 5th-highest rate in the league (45.4%). Do you know who has the 4th-highest passer rating against man coverage in the NFL this season, trailing only Cousins, Wilson, and Rodgers? You guessed it…Josh Allen. The Bills offense has ripped man-free coverage apart so this season, mainly because their receiving quartet of Stefon Diggs, John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Gabe Davis are all extremely hard for any defense to handle across the board in man coverage.
If I had to make an educated guess here, I think the Bills and Cardinals are going to turn this game into a pure track meet from start to finish, and honestly I don’t think either defense is going to be able to make many stops. BUT…if I had to gamble on just one of these units making *enough* key stops to win the field position and time of possession battle, it would be Buffalo. They managed to do it against Russell Wilson last week, forcing four turnovers in between giving up 34-points, and I expect more of the same this week. Lots of explosive plays for Arizona, and plenty of points, but *just enough* big plays made by this Bills defense to be the difference in the game.
CHARGERS vs DOLPHINS
GAME PICK: CHARGERS
SPREAD PICK: CHARGERS (+2)
ANALYSIS: The Dolphins LOVE calling blitz zero. They will park all of their DBs at a 10-yard depth, throw the kitchen sink at quarterbacks, and dare them to beat it. In fact, they call blitz zero at the 2nd-highest rate in the league at 8.6%, which is A LOT. Conversely, Justin Herbert has arguably been the BEST quarterback in the league against zero this season, even as a rookie.
He has seen that coverage the 3rd-most of any quarterback, but still has a 149.1 passer rating against it with 4 touchdowns and no interceptions (check out his gutsy TD pass under pressure against Tampa Bay if you want an example of how good he is against it). If Miami decides to dial up blitz zero against Herbert today, and they almost certainly will, they should do so at their own risk. Herbert has no qualms about just standing in that pocket and taking a huge hit as he throws a laser down the field with no safety deep to punish him. It worked against Tampa – it can certainly work against Miami, too.
On the flip side, the Dolphins will be without four assistance coaches yet again because of Covid, and they are likely to not have DT Christian Wilkins or LB Kyle Van Noy, either. Plus, Preston Williams is probably done for the year as well after his injury last week, so the Fins are both figuratively and literally short-staffed at the moment. I think when you combine the brilliance under pressure of Justin Herbert with a short-handed Dolphins roster that already has some critical matchup problems against this Chargers squad, I’m kind of feeling LA to win this one. Not by much, of course, but I think they pull it off on the road.
BRONCOS vs RAIDERS
GAME PICK: RAIDERS
SPREAD PICK: RAIDERS (-3.5)
ANALYSIS: This game is going to be a fascinating battle between the Broncos linebackers and the Raiders offensive line. Vegas is the sixth-best team in the league at generating extra yards on the second level, with 1.3 yards per carry once they clear five yards past the line of scrimmage. Meanwhile, the Broncos are the third-best defense in the league at LIMITING second-level yards, holding teams to 0.9 extra second level yards, on average. A.J. Johnson and Josey Jewell have been **flying** to the football this season, and I’ve had this matchup circled on my calendar for quite a while out of sheer excitement.
If Johnson and Jewell can keep their hot streak up and be disruptive against the wide variety of runs that Jon Gruden dials up on a weekly basis (last week’s in vogue call was a pin and pull vs the Chargers that worked damn near every time), then I think the Broncos have a chance here. It’s a slight chance, but still a chance. The key is just shutting down that run game and forcing Derek Carr into as many third and longs as possible. Vegas is second in the league at third down conversion percentage (51%), and because of that they sustain drives and turn them into points more often than almost any other team in the league. If they can’t force Carr into lower percentage downs like 3rdand 7+, then Denver doesn’t have a chance in hell of winning this one. Vegas is way too hard to get off the field if the Broncos don’t win BIG on those early downs.
SEAHAWKS vs RAMS
GAME PICK: RAMS
SPREAD PICK: RAMS (-2)
ANALYSIS: If practice reports are anything to go by, the Rams have been preparing all week for a heavy pressure-oriented game plan from the Seahawks defense, which makes sense considering the Hawks blitz over 50% of the time against teams that they perceive to be greater running threats than passing threats (New England, San Francisco, and obviously Buffalo last week). I think they will try to blitz the Rams like crazy as well, considering LA is *also* a very run-heavy team, which means the Rams will probably be getting ready for a lot of screens and max-protection play action passes (The Athletic’s Jourdan Rodrigue may or may not have given some subtle hints at that this week on Twitter).
Look for Goff to take several shots off play action to Robert Woods today for some big gains, while on the other side the Rams defense will probably continue their dominant ways and put relentless pressure on Russell Wilson while he tries to carry the team all by himself (again). In most weeks I would probably bet on Wilson to pull another rabbit out of his hat, but I just don’t think I can do it anymore. The Hawks defense is just too terrible for me to ignore any longer. Until I see some drastic improvement from that side of the ball, it’s hard for me to bet on Seattle to beat a good, well-coached team that already beats Seattle 66% of the time under Sean McVay as it is.
BENGALS vs STEELERS
GAME PICK: STEELERS
SPREAD PICK: STEELERS (-7)
ANALYSIS: Joe Burrow is going to be a very, VERY good quarterback…but let’s be honest, he’s going to get beat up pretty badly today. Just remember while you’re watching this game that this is the most ferocious pass rush in the NFL (by a lot), and that Burrow’s offensive line is the sixth-worst in the league in adjusted allowed sack rate (8.1%). He’s going to get CRUSHED early and often, and I personally probably will not hold him responsible for whatever happens today.
When it comes to the Bengals defense vs the Steelers offense, I don’t have high expectations for them either. Cincinnati’s defensive line has been the lowest-graded unit against the run in the entire league ever since D.J. Reader’s season-ending quad injury a month ago, and their linebackers are similarly awful as well – also ranking dead last in the league in second-level rushing yards allowed. I fully expect the Steelers to just run the ball down the Bengals’ throats all day while the defense tees off on Burrow with a two-possession lead by halftime. This game could get really ugly…really quickly.
49ERS vs SAINTS
GAME PICK: SAINTS
SPREAD PICK: SAINTS (-10)
ANALYSIS: The Saints are finally starting to get back to full strength now that Michael Thomas is back (and angrier than ever), while the 49ers seem to only get more beat up with each passing week. If this were a fair fight with both teams’ full starting rosters on the field, I would honestly favor San Francisco…but this is NOT a fair fight. The fact that this line is only 10 points in favor of New Orleans is a testament to Kyle Shanahan’s brilliance as a head coach, because most teams with the 49ers’ injury woes that go on the road against a loaded Saints team would be much, much larger underdogs than that.
I think the Saints will dink and dunk their way up and down the field to avoid the 49ers’ stout run defense, which means tons of receptions for Alvin Kamara for all you daily fantasy players out there. Michael Thomas will likely be doubled on every single play when they 49ers are in quarters coverage as well (they run Cover 4 at the fifth-highest rate in the league at 17.7%), and that indicates that we could see a lot of involvement from Emmanuel Sanders too since he will likely be isolated one on one out on the boundary against any quarters looks.
Overall, just expect a lot of passing from the Saints today – particularly with the quick game – so that they can play their usual ball-control style of offense while the defense waits their turn to tee off on Nick Mullens. Fair warning, this one could get rough, Niners fans.
RAVENS vs PATRIOTS
GAME PICK: RAVENS
SPREAD PICK: RAVENS (-7)
ANALYSIS: A lot of noise has been made about the Ravens’ “predictability” on offense this week, but I consider their issues to be more rooted in execution than anything else. Lamar has missed some easy throws, receivers have dropped some easily-catchable balls, and the offensive line has not been as effective this year as they were last year – and that’s even *before* Ronnie Stanley’s injury. And yet, even with all of those problems, Baltimore has still scored less than 24 points this season only ONCE.
The Ravens are still extremely fast, they still create problems with angles and timing in the run game and that drives defenses nuts because nobody can realistically prepare for them in just one week of practice, and they still have a quarterback in Lamar Jackson that can single handedly turn any bad play into a good one in the blink of an eye. Sure, the Ravens are not as good this year as they were in 2019 **so far**, but I still have belief in them to turn this ship around and show improvement. Their floor is still relatively high as an offense…we just need to see that ceiling get raised along with it for once.
Plus, even if the offense never reaches their 2019 peak again this season, Baltimore still has a bad ass defense that obliterates run games every week and suffocates quarterbacks with relentless pressure. This is a GREAT, well-rounded football team with a terrific culture and coaching staff, and I expect them to remind the country of how dangerous they are tonight against a Patriots roster that is ill-equipped to handle them.
VIKINGS vs BEARS
GAME PICK: BEARS
SPREAD PICK: BEARS (+3)
ANALYSIS: Analysis coming in the morning once we get final injury information.
Comments
Brett Kollmann
I've really loved what I've seen. He looks exactly like he looked at Bama. Everything is QUICK! His processing, his release, his movement inside the pocket. He's all about tempo, and that tempo really helps this Dolphins defense maintain efficiency. I think as Miami continues to collect YAC threats, they will only get even better. Tua is a phenomenal "YAC" quarterback with how accurate he is to set guys up for runs after the catch, so he and Jakeem Grant are a match made in heaven.
Brett Kollmann
I was thinking that Foles might be able to punish those young corners at least a LITTLE bit with some deep shots to A-Rob, and that the defense could do their part to keep the Vikes in check (which they did, for most of the game). What I was mostly disappointed by was just how bad that Bears offense is. Even against an inexperienced secondary like Minnesota's and an inconsistent pass rush, they just got NOTHING done. It's going to be hard for me to really bet on the Bears again this season to be honest
Kate and Andrew
How do you feel about how Tua is playing so far? Would he be a promising dynasty asset in your eyes?
Is your thinking tonight that the bears can stop the outside zone run of the vikings, and foles will just be less bad than cousins?
