Brett Kollmann
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NFL Week 13 Picks and Analysis!
🕑 Added 2020-12-06 08:16:00 +0000 UTCMan…I got absolutely CRUSHED last week when picking against the spread. My record was 4-11-1, which might just be one of the worst weekends I’ve ever had. Hell, just that one week dropped my entire winning percentage for the season down from a very respectable 53.6%, to a barely above water 50.6%. Hopefully I can have a big bounce back Sunday today and get back into the green!
GAME PICK RECORD: 110-67-0
SPREAD PICK RECORD: 84-82-2 (50.6% win rate vs the spread so far. 55% is considered a top-tier hit rate, for reference)
SAINTS @ FALCONS
GAME PICK: SAINTS
SPREAD PICK: FALCONS (+3)
ANALYSIS: The Falcons defense has certainly been playing better and forced a flurry of fumbles and pressures against Derek Carr and the Raiders last week, but I wouldn’t quite count on a repeat performance against a top tier offensive line like New Orleans. Even with Terron Armstead seemingly missing his second game in a row with Covid-19, I still have confidence in this unit to hold up. Backup left tackle James Hurst did not allow a single pressure last week vs Denver, and I think he could have a similar performance this week against a Falcons pass rush that is very, very inconsistent.
On the other side of the ball, Julio Jones and Todd Gurley are both expected to play today, but neither are 100 percent for this one. Atlanta will have to heavily rely on Calvin Ridley to carry the load (again), which may end up being fruitful considering that Janoris Jenkins is out today as well. If Atlanta can get Ridley matched up on an island with either P.J. Williams or Patrick Robinson, he could be in for a monster day.
Overall, I expect the Saints to win, but not by much. A three-point spread seems a hair excessive, so I’ll split the difference and call the Falcons to cover. A score of 27-25 seems about right.
JAGUARS @ VIKINGS
GAME PICK: VIKINGS
SPREAD PICK: VIKINGS (-10)
ANALYSIS: The Jaguars quarterback situation is a mess, their defense is a mess, and the entire coaching staff seems to be dead men walking. They are still playing man coverage more than anyone else in the league despite not having the corners to make that philosophy work, and I’m willing to bet they are going to try it AGAIN this week despite the Vikings having arguably the best one-two punch at receiver in the entire league.
They will play man. They will be torched. End of story. Minnesota will likely jump out to a big early lead and then grind out the second half with a bunch of runs from Dalvin Cook. To be honest, a 10-point line is smaller than I expected. That’s how bad a matchup this is for Jacksonville.
BROWNS @ TITANS
GAME PICK: BROWNS
SPREAD PICK: BROWNS (+4.5)
ANALYSIS: The Titans are really, really banged up right now. Jeffrey Simmons can barely practice because of a lingering knee injury, Jonnu Smith is already ruled out, and they are down to their fourth offensive tackle with a matchup against Myles Garrett and Olivier Vernon waiting for them today. If Derrick Henry and A.J. Brown can’t carry this offense all by their damn selves once again, this could be a long day for Tennessee. They have become heavily reliant on yards after contact (both in the air and on the ground) because their pass protection and run blocking has been shaky at best, and relying **completely** on that to move the ball can be a bit hard to bet on.
On the flip side, the Titans are STILL the worst third down defense in the league, allowing just over 50% of them to be converted. And that’s a scary thought considering that the Browns offense is built around long, efficient, sustained drives that move the chains over and over and wear defenses down. Overall, I’m really concerned about this matchup for Tennessee. Is their resume more impressive than Cleveland right now? Sure, maybe…but when it comes to actual matchups on the field, this isn’t a great one for them.
LIONS @ BEARS
GAME PICK: BEARS
SPREAD PICK: BEARS (-3)
ANALYSIS: This is a tough game to pick because betting on the Bears to beat the spread is very dependent on the status of Akiem Hicks and Allen Robinson. Hicks is still trying to come back from a nagging hamstring and may or may not play today, while Robinson was just put on the injury report with a midweek knee injury (which is usually a bad thing). If both of them play, then it’s a decent bet to consider the Bears the favorite against a Lions team that is ALSO very banged up and still missing their offensive X-Factor in Kenny Golladay, but if neither Hicks or Robinson play this pick could get murky.
Hicks in particular is really the straw that stirs the drink for that Bears defense. If he’s not on the field, then this game could really go either way. Keep an eye on the final inactives and bet accordingly. If Hicks and Robinson are in, bet the Bears. If not, just stay the hell away from this game at all costs.
BENGALS @ DOLPHINS
GAME PICK: DOLPHINS
SPREAD PICK: DOLPHINS (-10.5)
ANALYSIS: The Dolphins have the best third down defense in the league (32%), the second-best scoring defense (18.6 points per game allowed), and are second in turnovers forced per game (1.7). This defense is NASTY, almost recklessly aggressive, and they are GREAT at taking the ball away. This buzzsaw is going be thrown against a Bengals offense that is starting a young backup quarterback behind a shaky at best offensive line, and I just can’t see any way that this goes well for Cincy.
The pressure will be relentless, the press coverage will be belligerent, and I highly doubt that Brian Flores is going to call off the dogs at any point either. That’s just not his style. If the Bengals manage to keep this game within two scores, I would consider that a moral victory for them. Joe Burrow really was the only thing keeping them in games to begin with, and now without him…this could get ugly.
COLTS @ TEXANS
GAME PICK: COLTS
SPREAD PICK: COLTS (-3.5)
ANALYSIS: Due to Will Fuller’s suspension, Kenny Stills’ release, and Randall Cobb going on IR, the Texans receiving corps now consists of Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and…I guess rookie Isaiah Coulter? Deshaun Watson has been playing like a stone -old elite quarterback this season, but there’s only so much that one man can do with weapons like that. And on top of that, it’s not like the Texans can just turn to their run game to give them a spark considering they have arguably the worst run game in the entire league (84 yards per game, INCLUDING Watson’s production). The Colts already have a great defense – they certainly don’t need the help – but I truly do not see how this depleted Texans offense will get anything done today.
Indy will just sit in two-high shells all game long, force Deshaun to constantly check it down, and I highly doubt they will be punished for playing a light box at all by the run game either. If the Colts don’t win this game by at least a touchdown, it’s their own fault, because almost every single personnel matchup on the field heavily favors them…even with their own injuries taken into account.
RAIDERS @ JETS
GAME PICK: RAIDERS
SPREAD PICK: JETS (+7.5)
ANALYSIS: I am really intrigued to see what happens in this game between the Raiders run game and the Jets run defense, because the Jets are quietly one of the better run defenses in the league. They allow the fifth-lowest yards per attempt, and are the eighth-best rushing defense DVOA on Football Outsiders. Quinnen Williams has turned into the centerpiece for that whole front seven, and his dominance against the run has really helped to spurn the Jets’ success in that area.
Right next to Williams, John Franklin-Myers is also quietly one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL as well. He might only have one sack, but he is in the top 10 among ALL defensive tackles in hurries despite playing a fraction of the snaps of most other DTs that high on the list, so he certainly does speed up a quarterback’s internal clock quite often. Look for this dynamic DT duo to really make a big impact on this game, and potentially make it a lot closer than some people expect.
Do I think the Raiders will still win? Absolutely – the Jets are awful, Derek Carr is a good quarterback, and Vegas still has way too much receiving talent for Gang Green to deal with…but do I think that the Jets might at least cover here? Probably, yeah. New York has some exciting young talent of their own between the two DTs I already talked about, Denzel Mims, and of course the phenomenal Mekhi Becton. I think they can legitimately give the Raiders a fight here, even despite Adam Gase’ best efforts to completely ruin this team week after week. If the scored ended up something like 24-17, that would sound about right to me.
GIANTS @ SEAHAWKS
GAME PICK: SEAHAWKS
SPREAD PICK: SEAHAWKS (-11.5)
ANALYSIS: The Seahawks defense is quietly improving each and every week. They are averaging allowing less than 300 yards through the air and only one passing TD over their last three games, which by their standards is a massive leap, and their run defense is still as good as ever. I think the Giants would have struggled to move the ball no matter who was playing quarterback for them today, so now that we know that Colt McCoy will be the starter I feel confident in my pick in Seattle to cover that huge -11.5 spread.
The one issue that Seattle might have in terms of personnel matchups is either of their receivers against James Bradberry, who has played like a lockdown corner this year…but the good news for the Hawks is that **every other** corner on the Giants roster NOT named James Bradberry has been below average at best. Whether it’s Metcalf or Lockett, no matter what, whoever is not being covered by Bradberry should have a field day with this secondary. I expect Seattle to pass it early and often to avoid that quietly solid Giants run defense, and instead focus on their beleaguered secondary that ranks 25th in passing defense DVOA (18.3%).
RAMS @ CARDINALS
GAME PICK: RAMS
SPREAD PICK: RAMS (-2.5)
ANALYSIS: This matchup really excites me because we finally get to see Brandon Staley’s college-inspired match quarters defense go toe to toe with Kliff Kingsbury’s college-inspired spread passing game. It should be REALLY fun to see the chess match in this one, but overall I slightly favor the Rams because I think LA’s condensed odd fronts and two-high shells provide a very difficult challenge for Kingsbury to overcome. They can’t really push the ball down the field because the Rams secondary is playing out of their minds and takes away the deep ball better than almost anyone else, and they can’t really run the ball inside against “light boxes” either because the LA defensive line tends to kick ass and take names against every offensive line they face.
Pretty much the only things Kingsbury can do is just take chances with their one on one matchups and hope his skill position talent can carry the day (like Buffalo did early in the season), or alternatively rely on the stretch and counter running game and just hope that Aaron Donald doesn’t ruin the game (like the 49ers did). Both of those options are technically possible, but also very hard to pull off. We’ll see what they try to go with, but either way…I still like the Rams in this one. They are a great matchup against this Cardinals squad.
PATRIOTS @ CHARGERS
GAME PICK: PATRIOTS
SPREAD PICK: PATRIOTS (+1.5)
ANALYSIS: Justin Herbert is statistically one of the best quarterbacks in the league under pressure, and one of the best quarterbacks in the league at taking shots against man coverage. He will likely get a heavy dose of both of those things against New England today, but if I know Bill Belichick (and I do), he will most likely stick to the same coverage that he used to play against Houston when they had DeAndre Hopkins – “Cover 1 Double”.
I would be willing to bet that he takes away Keenan Allen from Justin Herbert with a constant double team and forces Herbert to rely on everyone else. That means Mike Williams out on an island, and Austin Ekeler one on one in space every single play. The key question here is – will Herbert take advantage of that? Will he feed Ekeler the ball 10+ times in the passing game, considering he will likely be his best pure mismatch left on the field. Time will tell, I suppose, but I do think that we might see a bit more reserved Herbert in this game than we usually see if his favorite target is repeatedly taken from him.
On the other side, the Chargers have one of the worst run defenses in the league by DVOA, and they are being tasked with stopping one of the very BEST rushing offenses in the league in the Patriots. New England is fourth in the league in adjusted line yards per play at 4.84, and they only get stuffed at the line of scrimmage on 14.7% of their runs – the fifth-best rate in the league. I fully expect this bruising Pats running game to control the clock and keep Herbert off the field for as long as possible, and then once Herbert IS on the field, I think his frustration with Allen being taken away could potentially lead to him making some costly mistakes. That is my theory, at least. Let’s see how this one turns out.
EAGLES @ PACKERS
GAME PICK: PACKERS
SPREAD PICK: PACKERS (-9)
ANALYSIS: Carson Wentz has been awful. The offensive line has been awful. The receivers have been awful. The coaching has been awful. How the absolute hell is this line only 9 points? Does Vegas expect Miles Sanders to rush for 300 yards and for Wentz to only attempt eight passes all game?
Seriously…how is this number real? Is it because Corey Linsley and potentially Za’Darius Smith are out for Green Bay? Is that it? Somebody explain this to me like I’m five because I just don’t get it.
BRONCOS @ CHIEFS
GAME PICK: CHIEFS
SPREAD PICK: BRONCOS (+13.5)
ANALYSIS: The key for the Broncos today is running the ball. Pat Shurmur has done a really nice job with incorporating more pin and pull zone and outside zone run schemes lately to get around the fact that the Denver offensive line can’t really do inside zone, duo, or power run schemes all that well, and if they can hit on a few of those explosive outside runs it might go a long way towards keeping this game close.
The less that Drew Lock has to pass the better, because he’s been truly awful at identifying and beating pressure this season. And I think that if Denver gets behind by a lot, Steve Spagnuolo will just start throwing the kitchen sink at Lock until he breaks. Run the ball, keep Patrick Mahomes off the field, and don’t fall more than double digits behind – that’s the formula here. If the game is close enough that the Chiefs have to respect the run, then Denver has a shot. But if the Chiefs get up by 14 on the Broncos early on after one of their trademark first half scoring frenzies…this game could get ugly.
WASHINGTON @ STEELERS
GAME PICK: STEELERS
SPREAD PICK: STEELERS (-6)
ANALYSIS: It is tempting to at least pick Washington to cover in this game because they still have a great defensive line and a few exciting young weapons that can break open a game (McLaurin, Gibson, etc), and we also have to take into account that the Steelers are starting to get more and more banged up with each passing week....buuuuut I just can't bring myself to pull that trigger quite yet.
Pittsburgh still has a phenomenal defense - with or without Bud Dupree - and even thought Big Ben is not what he used to be, I'm still a big believer in this Steelers receiving corps to win their one on ones and rack up yardage against a soft Washington secondary. PIT will probably will this game by seven-ish, but I'm unwilling to go any higher than that.
BILLS @ 49ERS
GAME PICK: BILLS
SPREAD PICK: BILLS (+1.5)
ANALYSIS: The Bills are underdogs against the 49ers despite the 49ers ALSO technically being the road team down in Arizona? Seriously? I have no idea why Vegas would favor the 49ers in this game. Maybe you can call it a pickem **at best** because the Buffalo run defense isn't all that great, which favors San Francisco...but FAVORITES? Come on, now.
I think this will be a very close game defined by the classic Shanahan ball-control offense trying to keep Josh Allen off the field, but in the end I just can't bring myself to pick against Buffalo here. Allen has been playing too well against zone coverage lately (his former achilles heel), his weapons are too explosive to cover in man as well, and the Bills' coaching staff is just too good for me to think the 49ers pull off the non-"upset" in this game.
COWBOYS @ RAVENS
GAME PICK: RAVENS
SPREAD PICK: RAVENS (-9)
ANALYSIS: The Ravens are a much better football team than they are given credit for. Despite being down a huge number of critical starters and being down to their third string quarterback against the Steelers last week, they still have Pittsburgh all they could handle until the bitter end. No, Lamar Jackson is not perfect, but he's still a very, very good quarterback that people are way too quick to write off.
I think Baltimore plays this game with their hair on fire against a vastly inferior opponent and proves once and for all that no, they are NOT just one-year wonders, and that yes, they ARE a legitimate threat in the AFC. When the Ravens are clicking, there's maybe only a handful of teams in the league that even stand a chance at beating them - the Cowboys are not one of those teams. Not even if Dak were healthy.
Comments
Brett Kollmann
I wouldn’t be surprised at all 😅
Justin Herbert pick to devin McCourty in the cover 1 zone. Calling it right now
