Brett Kollmann
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NFL Week 14 Picks and Analysis!
🕑 Added 2020-12-13 07:57:32 +0000 UTCNow that is more like it! After a horrendous week 12 that dropped my winning percentage by a fair bit, I bounced back well in week 13 to post a 10-5 record against the spread with my picks. Let’s see if we can continue that hot streak into week 14! As always, the odds used in this post are from Bovada.
GAME PICK RECORD: 122-70-0
SPREAD PICK RECORD: 94-87-2 (51.9% win rate vs the spread so far. 55% is considered a top-tier hit rate, for reference)
PATRIOTS @ RAMS
GAME PICK: RAMS
SPREAD PICK (from Thursday): RAMS (-4.5)
TITANS @ JAGUARS
GAME PICK: TITANS
SPREAD PICK: TITANS (-7.5)
ANALYSIS: The Jaguars are going to get (yet another) heavy dose of Derrick Henry in this game. Tennessee’s offensive line is ranked third in the league adjusted line yards (meaning they tend to kick ass and take names up front), while Henry himself has carried the Titans to top 10 rankings in both “second level” yards and “open field” yards. Considering Jacksonville’s front seven is ranked in the bottom 12 in stopping second level and open field yards respectively...this could be a MONSTER game on the ground for the Titans. I think they will control this one from start to finish.
VIKINGS @ BUCCANEERS
GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS
SPREAD PICK: VIKINGS (+7)
ANALYSIS: The Buccaneers have one of the best run defenses in the league, anchored by Ndamukong Suh and their tremendous linebackers, but I just refuse to bet against Dalvin Cook producing. He’s damn near matchup proof, especially since his offensive line is ranked first in the entire NFL in adjusted line yards, and second in stuff rate at only 14% (meaning that Dalvin gets tackled for no gain or for a loss the second lowest rate in the league).
If the Vikings can have even an average day on the ground this week, that will go a long way towards keeping third downs manageable for Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson. Plus, Tampa tends to respond to successful run games with relentless blitzing to clog up lanes, which only plays into Minnesota’s hand to set up deep shots off of play action with max protection to keep Kirk clean.
In the end I still think the Bucs will win this game, but only just BARELY. The 7-point line doesn’t make much sense to me. Minnesota is too explosive and they match up too well schematically for me to bet against them closing that gap.
CHIEFS @ DOLPHINS
GAME PICK: CHIEFS
SPREAD PICK: CHIEFS (-7)
ANALYSIS: There is a clear pattern for teams that slow down the Chiefs offense. Play two-high safeties, entice them to run the ball instead of throwing deep, keep everything in front of you on defense, and just wait for them to stall in the red zone where they are 22nd in the league in red zone TD conversion rate. THAT is the formula for beating KC.
The problem is...Miami doesn’t play that style of defense. They are aggressive, they blitz a lot, they play single high coverages, they play zero all the time...and all of that stuff is exactly what the Chiefs destroy (fun fact - Mahomes has thrown 8 TDs and 0 INTs against zero so far this season). The Chiefs WANT the Dolphins to play man. They WANT to see heavy boxes. They WANT to take their shots from outside the red zone. Everything that Miami prides themselves on doing on defense, is exactly what KC LIKES to play against.
It is very possible that Brian Flores will see that pattern and make some drastic changes to his play calling today to be a more bend-but-don’t-break style, but I just can’t bet on that happening considering we’re 14 weeks into the season and they haven’t done anything different already. I think the Dolphins are inevitably going to play with fire because that’s just what they do, and just like they did in week one vs Buffalo, they’ll get burned...a lot.
BRONCOS @ PANTHERS
GAME PICK: BRONCOS
SPREAD PICK: BRONCOS (+3.5)
ANALYSIS: I know it sounds weird, but I actually think the Broncos win this game. They have the second best red zone defense in the league in terms of forcing field goals instead of touchdowns (KC found that out the hard way last week...it’s hard to score on quarters coverage inside the 20), while the Panthers red zone offense is a woefully ranked 25th at touchdown scoring percentage. Unless Carolina can pop some BIG plays to their bevy of fast receivers from outside the red zone, I think it’s going be really hard for them to score today.
And on the flip side, the Panthers rushing defense gives up an extra 1.2 yards per carry on the second level because their linebackers are super inconsistent, which can be a death sentence against a run game like Denver’s that is already above average on extra second level yards per carry. Hell, the Broncos running backs combined average 4.5 per carry in total as it is...that’s ninth in the league! Carolina could be in real trouble here.
The Panthers can’t stop the run, and they can’t score in the red zone. Both of those weaknesses play right into Denver’s hands.
TEXANS @ BEARS
GAME PICK: BEARS
SPREAD PICK: BEARS (+2)
ANALYSIS: The Texans can’t run the ball, their interior offensive line gives up tons of pressure, and they are down to mostly backups at both corner and wide receiver now. This team is beat up, and they weren’t even deep to begin with.
I know that Deshaun Watson is treating this game as a “revenge game” of sorts...and believe me I know that he might just take over by himself and win the damn thing anyway (he almost did last week)...but the team around him is just too garbage for me to bet on that.
In the end, it was the team around Deshaun that lost against the Colts last week, and I think the team around him will lose this week too. The Bears have a terrible quarterback and coaching situation right now, but at least the rest of the team is functional and there’s lots of talent on the roster - I can’t say the same for Houston. It’s Watson vs the world, and right now that just isn’t enough.
CARDINALS @ GIANTS
GAME PICK: GIANTS
SPREAD PICK: GIANTS (+2.5)
ANALYSIS: The Giants are on a bit of a roll, and I don’t see it slowing down this week against a banged up Cardinals team that is limping to the finish line. The Giants defense is aggressive, complex, and physical. Their guys play salty every week, but they play *smart* as well. Go back and watch the lane discipline that their pass rush played with against Russell Wilson last week. They knew exactly how to rush him (wide and deep) to make him uncomfortable, and they forced him to step up into the front of the pocket where he doesn’t want to be.
Kyler is the exact same way. Because of his height, he doesn’t want to be in the front of the pocket, but that’s exactly where this Giants pass rush is going to force him to go. Throw in the fact that Kyler’s shoulder is clearly still injured as well (he is literally not throwing deep AT ALL), and you have a recipe for a really rough day for him.
Oh, and the Giants offensive line is playing extremely well lately too. Andrew Thomas, believe it or not, has not even given up a single pressure since the Giants fired their former offensive line coach Marc Colombo. This team is improving, and FAST!
COWBOYS @ BENGALS
GAME PICK: COWBOYS
SPREAD PICK: COWBOYS (-3)
ANALYSIS: The Cowboys have a competent-ish quarterback in Andy Dalton, an elite receiving corps, and a dynamic running back duo in Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott that can get things done out of the back field. The Bengals have...almost none of that now that Joe Burrow and Joe Mixon are gone.
This game is going to be a wet noodle fight of the highest caliber, but it’s a wet noodle fight that I expect the Cowboys to win. Or rather, they will just lose less than Cincy.
COLTS @ RAIDERS
GAME PICK: COLTS
SPREAD PICK: COLTS (-3)
ANALYSIS: My fear for the Raiders offense came true last week. They went up against a really good interior defensive line rotation with the Jets, and Quinnen Williams and the rest of those guys gave them headaches all day long. Vegas struggled to sustain drives when their bread and butter interior run game was taken away, and not even Darren Waller’s monstrous yardage totals could save them. It took a Hail Mary in the end just to avoid that embarrassing loss.
This week is even harder, because they will face an even BETTER interior defensive line that features DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart, and unfortunately for the Raiders, the Colts are also WAY better at defending tight ends than the Jets are! If the Raiders want any hope of consistently moving the ball today, their interior OL is going to have to play out if its mind...but I just don’t see that happening.
I’ll take the Colts by a touchdown.
JETS @ SEAHAWKS
GAME PICK: SEAHAWKS
SPREAD PICK: JETS (+15)
ANALYSIS: The Jets may be bad, but I don’t think they are “lose to the Seahawks by 15” kind of bad, especially since the Seahawks are coming off a loss to the Giants that so thoroughly exposed their weaknesses to post-snap coverage rolls and zone pressures (Russ struggles with those).
Like I said last week, there’s a lot of young talent on this team that I really like in Becton, Mims, Williams, etc, and this really is more of a coaching problem than a roster problem. Will Seattle win? Almost certainly. Will they win by three possessions? I don’t believe so, no.
PACKERS @ LIONS
GAME PICK: PACKERS
SPREAD PICK: PACKERS (-8)
ANALYSIS: The Packers have one of the very best run blocking offensive lines in the league (8th in adjusted line yards on Football Outsiders), while the Lions front seven is bottom six in *opponent* adjusted line yards (4.76). Detroit is leaky as hell when it comes to opposing ground games, and they aren’t much better through the air either. They don’t have a single corner that can even remotely cover Davante Adams (I mean honestly, who can?), and their adjusted sack rate is bottom five in the league all the way down at just 4.7%.
The Lions are likely going to get stomped, and once again they won’t even have Kenny Golladay on the field to make their offense entertaining. Honestly, this line only being -8 was a surprise in itself. I would have gone double digits with it.
FALCONS @ CHARGERS
GAME PICK: CHARGERS
SPREAD PICK: CHARGERS (+1)
ANALYSIS: The Chargers may have a terrible special teams unit, a coach that doesn’t know clocks work, and a defense that can’t decide if they are great or awful in any given week, but at least they still have Justin Herbert, a fantastic receiving corps, and Joey Bosa. That’s all gotta count for something, right?
I think this game is going to be an absolute mess, but in a good and entertaining way. We’ll see Justin Herbert throwing bombs down the field against Atlanta’s single high looks, we’ll see him check it down to Austin Ekeler for 10+ yards on every single third down to move the chains, and we’ll see Bosa probably get a couple sacks and end drives all by his damn self. That’s basically the only game plan that LA has at this point - throw bombs and rush the passer - but it seems to work for them, ya know?
If your team is going to be a one trick pony, it might as well be a hell of a trick. I just don’t think Atlanta is equipped to deal with this play style. Chargers +1 seems safe to me.
WASHINGTON @ 49ERS
GAME PICK: WASHINGTON
SPREAD PICK: WASHINGTON (+3)
ANALYSIS: This game is interesting to me because on one side you have an offense like the 49ers that relies a lot on yards after the catch to move the chains (SF is ranked 5th in the league in YAC per game as a team), but on the other side you have a defense in Washington that allows the 4th-least YAC per game in the league. They FLY to the ball on defense as a unit, and generally speaking even if the first guy misses (which they do a lot because they are 6th in the league in missed tackles), there’s always another two or three right behind to finish the job.
I certainly think the Niners will complete a lot of passes today because they LOVE to live in that quick rhythm passing game to give Mullens easy completions...but they won’t get nearly the same yardage or points out of those short completions that they are used to getting. And in the end, those lack of yards and lack of sustained drives will be their undoing.
Give me Washington by a field goal in this one.
SAINTS @ EAGLES
GAME PICK: SAINTS
SPREAD PICK: SAINTS (-8)
ANALYSIS: I love Jalen Hurts. I really, really do...but he’s set up to fail here. The Saints defense is about as elite as it gets late in the season every single year under Dennis Allen, his offensive line is mostly garbage, his receiving corps is bad, and his coaches are...let’s just say not having their best season.
Nothing is going right for the Eagles, and I don’t think this situation is salvageable for a rookie quarterback making his first start against arguably the best team in the league. Jalen will make some great plays like he always does, but just like Deshaun Watson down in Houston, the supporting just isn’t there. Saints win by double digits.
STEELERS @ BILLS
GAME PICK: BILLS
SPREAD PICK: BILLS (-2)
ANALYSIS: The Steelers are getting more and more banged up with each passing week, which serves as a convenient “excuse” I suppose...but even if they were fully healthy I would still pick Buffalo to win this game anyway.
Josh Allen is playing at a borderline All-Pro level this year, his receiving corps is absolutely nuts and could probably light up this Steelers secondary if they dared to play straight man coverage (which they won’t), and Allen’s pass protection has been decent-ish to the point that I think they could buy him enough time to take some shots down the field. Plus, the Bills also have a coordinator in Brian Daboll that is smart enough to realize that running the ball against Pittsburgh’s front is pointless and they are better off throwing it 30-40 times just to get some yards (they already have done that multiple times this year).
As far as offenses go, this is one of the only ones in the league that is actually equipped to beat this Steelers defense, and I think they will do just that tonight on NBC. Now, does that mean I expect them to put up 30+ points and light up the scoreboard? Hell no...but I do expect at least 20-24, and that should be enough to secure a win.
Bills 24 - Steelers 20.
RAVENS @ BROWNS
GAME PICK: RAVENS
SPREAD PICK: RAVENS (-3)
ANALYSIS: Originally I actually had the Browns winning this game, but I have since changed my pick to the Ravens because I do think that they match up pretty well against Cleveland. The Browns have arguably one of the hottest offenses in the league right now, anchored by their elite offensive line and backfield, but that hot offense tends to thrive off of two things - outside runs, and broken tackles. Cleveland is ranked in the top eight teams in yards per carry to the edges on either side, and behind the left tackle position specifically (Jedrick Wills) they are ranked second in the league. Meanwhile the Ravens tend to *excel* at stopping outside runs and are ranked 6th in the league at limiting yardage on runs to over either offensive tackle.
Nick Chubb also may be rated in the top 10 in the NFL in rushes per broken tackle (9.3), but the Ravens defense is the fourth-best in the entire league at NOT missing tackles. As a group they miss fewer than eight tackles per game, which is elite efficiency...relatively speaking. For reference, the Browns have missed the most tackles in the entire league this year, averaging nearly 12 broken tackles per game on defense. Against this Baltimore ground game that thrives on running through contact and getting extra yards, that lack of efficiency and discipline can be an absolute killer for Cleveland.
Because of those two things alone, I'll go with Baltimore tonight. I think they win by a touchdown.
Comments
Brett Kollmann
Trust me I think they'll be just fine....maybe ;-)
William Santiago
Brett how could you curse the Rams on Twitter like that?!?! Thanks to you they won’t even make the Super Bowl now😂😭
Brett Kollmann
Especially since Van Noy is such a versatile piece for them. He does everything - rush the passer, cover, sets a great edge on early downs. He’s critical for them, and as you said, his absence will hurt.
Van Noy and Elandon Roberts are both out for the Dolphins. That hurts.
