Brett Kollmann
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Week 15 Game Picks!
🕑 Added 2020-12-20 15:21:34 +0000 UTCGAME PICK RECORD: 136-72-0
SPREAD PICK RECORD: 104-93-2 (52.8% win rate vs the spread so far. 55% is considered a top-tier hit rate, for reference)
Well well well, we have managed to string together back to back good weeks for the Patreon picks series! I went 14-2 in game picks and 10-6 against the spread last week, which is fairly good...but I'll admit it could have been a lot better were it not for some very sneaky back door covers in the closing minutes of a few games (I'm looking at you, Miami). Overall I am sitting at a slightly above average pick rate against the spread for the season at 52.8%, which I'll take all day at this point. What more can someone ask for than mild success in a year like 2020, right?
Let's see if we can keep our good luck going this week with some solid picks!
CHARGERS @ RAIDERS
GAME PICK: CHARGERS
SPREAD PICK (from Thursday): CHARGERS (+3.5)
BILLS @ BRONCOS
GAME PICK: BILLS
SPREAD PICK (from Saturday): BRONCOS (-6)
PANTHERS @ PACKERS
GAME PICK: PACKERS
SPREAD PICK (from Saturday): PACKERS (-8.5)
TEXANS @ COLTS
GAME PICK: COLTS
SPREAD PICK: COLTS (-7.5)
ANALYSIS: The Texans managed to keep this to a one-score loss a couple of weeks ago in Houston, but I don’t think Deshaun Watson will be able to cover the spread a second time. Every single issue that the Texans had last week against the Bears should be even *worse* against the Colts.
Houston still can’t stop the run (Taylor averaged 7.0 yards per carry in their first meeting, they can’t pass protect up the middle, and their receiving corps is arguably the least threatening in the league outside of Brandin Cooks. Meanwhile the Colts have an elite defense, an improving run game with each passing week, and a set of receivers that Houston (probably) stands no chance at covering.
If the Texans lose by less than 8, I’ll consider that a success.
LIONS @ TITANS
GAME PICK: TITANS
SPREAD PICK: TITANS (-9.5)
ANALYSIS: The Lions have the 26th-ranked rushing defense DVOA in the league and are ranked 30th, 22nd, and 17th in yards per carried allowed up the middle, over the right tackle, and out to the right edge, respectively. Meanwhile the Titans are 3rd in the league in offensive rushing DVOA, and are 5th, 5th, and 2nd in terms of yards per carry against those three weak points in the Lions front seven.
This is about as bad a matchup as it gets for this Lions defense, and I fully expect the Titans to grind them into dust by the third quarter. Throw in the fact that Kenny Golladay is still out, and Matthew Stafford is playing through multiple injuries himself, and I just don’t see this Lions offense being able to keep up. Tennessee should run away with this one, both figuratively and literally, early on in the game.
BEARS @ VIKINGS
GAME PICK: BEARS
SPREAD PICK: BEARS (+3)
ANALYSIS: I know this sounds weird, but the Bears are a better football team with Mitchell Trubisky under center right now. For all of his (many) flaws, Trubisky’s athleticism opens up the offense and allows Matt Nagy to call more bootlegs that make use of his mobility (and protect the offensive line from looking bad with their subpar pass protection).
Last week, the Bears offense relied on outsize zone, bootlegs, and the RPO game to move the ball up and down the field, and I think Chicago might be able to do the same thing this week. Will the offense be as successful overall as they were against Houston’s terrible defense? No, of course not, but NOT having a statue at QB like Nick Foles behind a bad offensive line in Chicago is clearly working.
The Bears aren’t *good*, but they are *better*, and that’s enough for me to be confident in picking them to win and cover.
SEAHAWKS @ WASHINGTON
GAME PICK: SEAHAWKS
SPREAD PICK: WASHINGTON (+6.5)
ANALYSIS: The Washington Football Team may be down their starting quarterback and emerging stud rookie running back due to injuries, but I still do think they can cover against the Hawks today just on the strength of their defense. The WFT defensive line is outrageously good, and their lane discipline as a unit when rushing the passer is sound enough that I think they might give Wilson little to no lanes of escape to get outside of the pocket where he’s comfortable.
If Washington can keep Wilson contained within the tackles, then their all-pro caliber interior rusher — Jon Allen — can do the rest and clean up. I think Seattle’s offense is going to struggle mightily today, and because of that I like Washington to cover.
PATRIOTS @ DOLPHINS
GAME PICK: DOLPHINS
SPREAD PICK: DOLPHINS (-1.5)
ANALYSIS: That Dolphins defense is no joke. They may have given up a lot of points to Kansas City on paper, but when you consider that seven of those points came on a punt return and another 14 of those points came from two big plays that Tyreek Hill made against a backup safety (both times immediately following separate injuries to Dolphins Pro Bowl caliber safety Bobby McCain), it honestly was not a bad defensive performance by Miami. They generated four turnovers, they (mostly) limited big plays when their actual starters were on the field, and they gave their team a chance late in the game to upset the reigning champs.
This Fins team is REALLY good, and now they are getting at least four starters back from injury this week against a completely outgunned Patriots squad. New England beat them in week one before Miami got all of their new personnel to gel, but I don’t expect a repeat performance - the Dolphins could very well wipe the floor with the Pats today.
JAGUARS @ RAVENS
GAME PICK: RAVENS
SPREAD PICK: RAVENS (-13)
ANALYSIS: The Jaguars are 21st in the NFL in second-level yards allowed against the run, 30th in open field yards per carry allowed, and they are 24th in rushing defensive DVOA (-0.8%), and they have the misfortune of going against arguably the most devastating ground attack in the entire league this week.
Baltimore is highly likely to put up 150+ yards rushing today, if not significantly more than that, and I just don’t think the Jags will be able to keep up with that kind of onslaught. “Time of possession” and “plays run” are probably going to be heavily in favor of Baltimore, and by the fourth quarter that exhausted (and severely undermanned) Jags defense will probably finally break for good.
Keep an eye out for a film room episode on that Ravens run game early this coming week. Greg Roman really has built an impressive machine there.
BUCCANEERS @ FALCONS
GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS
SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (-6.5)
ANALYSIS: This game fascinates me because even though the Buccaneers have “only” scored 24-26 points in each of their last three games, in terms of situational (and relative) efficiency they have been one of the best offenses in the league. Tampa currently is ranked 5th overall in offensive DVOA, and in the last three games specifically they have a top-10 red zone offense in terms of TD percentage (75%).
If Tampa gets inside the 20, more often than not they are going to score, and it is pretty likely that the Bucs will get plenty of red zone chances against this Falcons defense. Don’t get me wrong, Atlanta has DEFINITELY improved on the defensive side of the ball since Dan Quinn was fired, but I just do not believe they have the secondary to cover all of Tampa’s receiving options — nor do I think they have a good enough front seven to slow down Tampa’s offensive line, which is also a top-10 unit in the NFL in adjusted line yards per carry (4.42).
Atlanta is a better team than they were in September...I just don’t think their improvement is enough to win this game yet.
49ERS @ COWBOYS
GAME PICK: 49ERS
SPREAD PICK: 49ERS (-3)
ANALYSIS: The 49ers are a very well-coached team that just so happens to have had a lot of bad injury luck this year, while the Cowboys have been a very *poorly-coached* team that has ALSO had a lot of bad injury luck.
In games like this where both team’s starting quarterbacks are out, both team’s run games have been inconsistent, and both defenses have taken huge steps back from the year before, I just lean on one thing to decide who I pick...who are the coaches?
The 49ers have a top-five coach in the league in Kyle Shanahan who consistently puts together serviceable offenses with spare parts and scraps, while the Cowboys have Mike McCarthy, who could barely win a game or two even WITH a healthy Dak Prescott. That contest isn’t even close - just go with Shanahan and trust him to win with what he’s got.
EAGLES @ CARDINALS
GAME PICK: CARDINALS
SPREAD PICK: EAGLES (+6.5)
ANALYSIS: Last week’s upset win over the Saints was the best game the Eagles played all year. The ground game came alive because the quarterback was a true running threat for once, Hurts didn’t make too many mistakes as a passer either to put his team in bad positions, and even the oft-criticized defense and receiving corps stepped up as well. The entire team just seemed like a much more efficient operation in all three phases, and Hurts seemed in control from the very first play.
I don’t know if I’m willing to bet on this team to outright win two games in a row, but I certainly liked what I saw out of Hurts enough for me to bet on him to cover today. He’s accurate, he’s mobile, and he’s cool under pressure - what more could you want?!
Oh...right, you could want Justin Jefferson as your first round draft pick. Well...besides that, what more could you want?!
JETS @ RAMS
GAME PICK: RAMS
SPREAD PICK: JETS (+17)
ANALYSIS: The Rams are going to win this game easily, but I also expect them to take their foot off the gas in the second half once they have a two-score lead. In a non-rivalry game against an out of conference opponent that hasn’t won a game all year, that just seems like a very “Sean McVay” thing to do - don’t run up the score, don’t show any of the good stuff, and give some “tendency breaker” play calls that probably won’t even work, but will completely screw with other team’s analytics when scouting the Rams so it will all be worth it in the end anyway.
The Jets run defense is very good, and I would not be shocked if the Rams just go on autopilot with the game well in hand to grind out some long, arduous, inefficient drives that end in field goals just to shorten this game and go home with a 14 or 15-point win. 17 just seems to high for me, even for a team as awful as the Jets.
CHIEFS @ SAINTS
GAME PICK: SAINTS
SPREAD PICK: SAINTS (+3)
ANALYSIS: The Saints will be without Michael Thomas once again with that nagging ankle injury, which is a shame obviously, but I think the Saints defense and the return of Drew Brees to the lineup could very well be enough to still win this game anyway. New Orleans are the number one rushing DVOA defense in the league (-32.3%), and the number four passing defense DVOA as well (-7.7%). Even with the Chiefs’ proclivity for explosive plays, I expect them to struggle today.
Sure Tyreek Hill will probably get a couple of big catches and Travis Kelce will make his share of plays too, but once the Chiefs get into the red zone they might be toast. KC’s red zone TD scoring percentage is dead last in the league by A LOT over the last three games at a paltry 11%, and that just flat out won’t cut it against this loaded Saints roster.
If the Chiefs want to win this game, they will have to try to score from outside the 20-yard line, but that’s easier said than done against a Saints defense that has allowed the 7th-fewest 20+ yard passing plays in the league this year. New Orleans doesn’t give up big chunks, and they make teams earn every yard in the red zone. KC struggles to win against that kind of formula.
BROWNS @ GIANTS
GAME PICK: BROWNS
SPREAD PICK: BROWNS (-6.5)
ANALYSIS: We are starting to see what it looks like when this Browns offense finally “gels” together. Systems like Kevin Stefanski’s in the Kyle Shanahan and Gary Kubiak mold are notorious for taking a long time to really click for a team in their first year. There are a ton of nuances to the passing game - particularly the route tree and the play call verbiage - and the run game relies almost entirely on communication and synergy among this brand new offensive line that just wasn’t there yet to begin the season. After 14 full games, we are finally seeing what this offense was supposed to look like to start the year, and it’s *devastatingly* good.
Don’t get me wrong, the Giants have a good young defense themselves, anchored by a great interior defensive line and some nice pieces in the secondary...but I just don’t think they have the firepower yet to slow down a team like Cleveland. And hell, even if they do slow them down a tiny bit, I highly doubt a Colt McCoy-led offense will be enough to keep up as long as Myles Garrett is screaming off that edge against one of the worst (if not THE worst) tackle duos in the league.
There’s a lot of nice talent on this Giants squad, but until they get a new quarterback I will never feel comfortable picking them to cover against a loaded roster like Cleveland that can hang up 24+ points without even breaking a sweat.
STEELERS @ BENGALS
GAME PICK: BROWNS
SPREAD PICK: NONE YET. UPDATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
ANALYSIS: NONE YET. UPDATE SUNDAY NIGHT.
Comments
Michael Melendez
What prop bets are we taking for SNF?
Where do you post the Monday night and Thursday night games?
