Brett Kollmann
patreon
NFL WEEK 16 SATURDAY PICKS!
🕑 Added 2020-12-26 16:58:13 +0000 UTCSome of y'all were messaging me and asking for a couple picks for today's games, as well as what my pick would have been for the Christmas game yesterday (spoiler alert, I did NOT see six Kamara touchdowns coming!).
So to oblige that request, here are my picks for the day! I hope you all had a great holiday with your families. Keep an eye out on the Film Room channel today for another episode release!
VIKINGS @ SAINTS
GAME PICK: SAINTS
SPREAD PICK (from Friday): VIKINGS (+6.5)
BUCCANEERS @ LIONS
GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS
SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (-10.5)
ANALYSIS: Detroit has the least efficient defensive DVOA in the entire league. They are ranked 32nd overall, 31stagainst the pass, 28th against the run, and if that weren’t bad enough, their defensive play caller this week will be a former research assistant that has no previous experience in calling plays. On the other side of the ball is an incredibly explosive Tampa Bay offense that features a bunch of fantastic receivers, the second-most efficient pass blocking offensive line in the league in adjusted sack rate (4.1%), and a hot-and-cold Leonard Fournette in the backfield that can have a big day at any time.
Throw in the fact that the Bucs defense is still highly aggressive, brings constant pressure, and is capable of having a shutdown performance every once in a while, and I think this is a recipe for a huge blowout. I think Tampa wins by two touchdowns. Detroit doesn’t have the depth, they don’t have the health, and they don’t have the coaches to make this game close, in my opinion.
49ERS @ CARDINALS
GAME PICK: CARDINALS
SPREAD PICK: 49ERS (+6)
ANALYSIS: The fact that the Cardinals went back to calling designed runs for Kyler Murray last week tells me that his shoulder is starting to feel healthy again, and I suppose his 9.7-yard average depth of target (nearly two full yards above his average) tipped us off to that as well. Other than a couple “WTF” passes per week that we can kind of expect from Murray at this point, he was brilliant against the Eagles. He threw for 400 yards, accounted for four total touchdowns, and went blow for blow with Jalen Hurts to make sure that the Eagles could never claw their way out of that early nine-point deficit.
A healthy Kyler is one of the most dangerous quarterbacks in the league, and quite frankly I don’t think that the 49ers have enough firepower to get an upset today. Sure, they can keep this game close with C.J. Beathard (who isn’t necessarily a bad quarterback) because Kyle Shanahan is great at turning lemons into lemonade…but I just can’t pull the trigger on a 49er win today. Hell, the only reason I even give San Francisco a shot to be in this game is because the Cardinals pass rush has been almost entirely decimated by injuries, so the immobile Beathard at least *has a chance* to survive in the pocket and let it rip.
If Chandler Jones and Dennis Gardeck were still healthy, this game probably wouldn’t even be close. But since Haason Reddick is down to being a one-man show, I’ll take a chance on the 49ers to cover.
RAIDERS @ DOLPHINS
GAME PICK: DOLPHINS
SPREAD PICK: RAIDERS (+2.5)
ANALYSIS: Unfortunately for the Dolphins they are still a little bit banged up in some key areas. Solomon Kinley, DeVante Parker, and Shaq Lawson are all out for this game, and even though Mike Gesicki will play...I don't feel great about going all in on Miami here. I would rather split the difference and bet one a one or two point Miami win rather than betting on them to win by at least a field goal.
It is very possible that Miami could run for quite a few yards against a soft Raiders front seven, but the Dolphins offensive line isn't exactly a good run blocking unit either. This is very much a battle of the stoppable force (Fins offense) vs the movable object (Raiders defense)...or at least it is until Miami gets fully healthy, so I don't really want to bet on either team here.
If anything, I would rather put my money on the under of 49.5. If both teams score in the low 20s or less, which I think is very possible, then that will pay out. Again, I'll still "pick" the Raiders for posterity, but I will not be putting any money on this game. It doesn't smell right to me.
Comments
Brett Kollmann
I'll publish that one once we get inactives. Lots of potential injury sits for MIA today.
What about Dolphins vs Raiders?
and kudos to being honest saying you had the Vikings yesterday
