Brett Kollmann
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NFL WILDCARD SATURDAY PICKS!
🕑 Added 2021-01-09 08:19:03 +0000 UTCOne of the best weeks of football in the entire calendar year is finally here...it’s Wildcard weekend! We have three great games on the docket today for the first time in league history, thanks to the new playoff seeding system. That means from 1PM until all the way to almost 9PM, we’ve got nothing but sweet, sweet playoff football to look forward to!
Here are my picks for all of today’s games. Keep in mind that some of these spreads will probably change pretty substantially once injury information is released for the teams with quarterback situations that are still up in the air:
COLTS @ BILLS
GAME PICK: BILLS
SPREAD PICK: BILLS (-6.5)
ANALYSIS: I think the Bills will win this game by at least a touchdown for two reasons. Number one - Josh Allen is an absolute **monster** against Cover-1 and Cover-3, which are the two coverages that the Colts base their defense out of, and number two...the Bills defense has significantly improved since linebacker Matt Milano has gotten healthy (ish).
Fun fact - Indianapolis runs a very “Seattle” style Cover-3 these days more than the Cover-2 base that we saw from them over the previous two years under Matt Eberflus. And against similar Cover-3 shells throughout the 2020 season, Josh Allen went 215/320 (67.2%) for 2,710 yards (8.5 YPA), 20 TDs, 5 INT, and only 21 sacks on 353 total dropbacks (5.9% sack rate).
Those are FANTASTIC numbers, and that is primarily because the Bills like to attack those kinds of coverages with deep crossing routes and over routes - which Allen is very good at hitting for big plays. Assuming that the Colts keep playing those single high safety coverages in this game, I expect Allen to hit Diggs and Brown on those deep crossing routes for multiple huge gains and/or touchdowns. It worked against Miami (twice), so it will probably work against Indianapolis too.
And then on the other side of the ball, the Bills defense has also quietly gotten a lot better against the run as the year has gone on...mainly because of the return of Matt Milano (who has not missed a single tackle in a month, by the way). By no means is the Bills rushing defense dominant now, but at the very least they are *average*, and that spells trouble for Indy. The Colts’ one shot to win this thing, in my opinion, was to get Jonathan Taylor to control the pace of the game and keep Josh Allen off the field. But if Buffalo can at least keep Taylor to less than 100 yards - and I think they absolutely can - then that game plan goes right out the window.
The Colts almost certainly cannot win a shoutout with Buffalo, and a shootout is what I think they are going to get. This is just a flat out rough matchup for Indy in the wildcard round.
RAMS @ SEAHAWKS
GAME PICK: SEAHAWKS
SPREAD PICK: SEAHAWKS (-3.5)
ANALYSIS: I’ll be honest...this game is extremely hard for me to predict, primarily because I don’t know who the Rams starting quarterback will be. John Wolford has taken the majority of snaps in practice, but Sean McVay has not ruled out Jared Goff yet either. The only thing we DO know is that no matter who the Rams trot out there at QB, they will be facing an extremely dangerous Seahawks defense that looks *nothing* like the historically awful unit that started the season off so terribly.
Seattle only allowed 15 points per game in the second half of the season, which is INSANELY good. The main reason for that sudden and stark jump in productivity was their much-improved communication, in my opinion. Talent was never really an issue for this team, but blown coverages and mental mistakes were. Now that seemingly everyone is on the same page for how to execute their assignments (Jamal Adams in particular), those pesky busted coverages have all but been eliminated, which means their overwhelming talent level has been allowed to really shine. Everyone from Carlos Dunlap, to Bobby Wagner, to KJ Wright, and obviously Adams have played well, and this defense is back to kicking ass and taking names like they used to in the early 2010s. No matter who takes snaps for the Rams today, they will have problems.
The one thing that LA has going for it in this game, however, is their own suffocating defense. Jalen Ramsey has completely shut down DK Metcalf on the snaps he covered him in their two previous meetings this season, allowing only 11 total yards in man coverage on four combined targets in those games. If Ramsey continues to shut down DK in one on one situations on the back side of Seattle’s favored 3X1 formations (they love to isolate Metcalf that way), then I think the Hawks passing game is really going to struggle (again). The Rams will be able to just double team everyone else on Seattle’s offense on the trips side of the formation from their 2hi safety looks, so if Metcalf can’t win that one on one against Ramsey...the Seahawks kind of have nothing else to work with.
Overall, it’s really tough to pick which defense is going to win this game, because I honestly can’t depend on either offense to get much done. All I can really do in uncertain situations like this one is just gamble on the better quarterback to make just enough plays to squeak out a win, so consider my pick for Seattle to really be a pick for Russell Wilson. He’s the one X factor here that the Rams simply cannot replicate or match.
BUCCANEERS @ WASHINGTON
GAME PICK: BUCCANEERS
SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (-8)
ANALYSIS: This is yet another game where we aren’t quite sure who is starting at quarterback. There is talk of Taylor Heinicki getting the start today for Washington if Alex Smith can’t play...which if that ends up being so, it would probably push this betting line much higher than 8 points.
This game is a bad enough matchup for Washington as it is, considering their one major strength - their defensive line - is sort of cancelled out by the Bucs’ elite pass-protecting offensive line (seriously, their *worst* starting lineman is Donovan Smith and at least he’s just average - everyone else is between great and elite). If you also consider that WFT also might not have their starting quarterback, AND their two best weapons on offense - McClaurin and Gipson - are playing hurt? Man...this game just might not even be fair.
Despite their underwhelming record this season, I truly believe that Tampa is one of the most dangerous teams in the entire playoff field. They have a elite trench play on both sides of the ball, tons of skill position talent, obviously a great quarterback who refuses to let age affect him, and a good coaching staff that is among the best in the league at second-half adjustments (especially on defense). The Bucs are GOOD...really good, and unfortunately for Washington, I think this game will get ugly.
If WFT was fully healthy, sure I would give them a shot...but they aren’t, so I just can’t realistically pick them to win (or even cover). I think Tampa will pull away in the second half to win by double digits when all is said and done.
Comments
Sunday thoughts? :D
I look forward to your picks every week man! Have a great rest of your day!
