Brett Kollmann
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NFL WILDCARD SUNDAY PICKS!
🕑 Added 2021-01-10 16:52:07 +0000 UTCRAVENS @ TITANS
GAME PICK: RAVENS
SPREAD PICK: TITANS (+3)
ANALYSIS: I think this game could end up being the highest scoring matchup of the weekend. The Titans are dead last in passing defense DVOA and only 16th in rushing defense DVOA (hurray for average, I guess), while the Ravens defense is below average at stopping zone runs runs that cut back in either the A or B gaps (4.23 YPC allowed) - which just so happens to be the exact style of run that Derrick Henry so effortless churns out yardage with.
Both of these teams are probably going to put up a lot of points, and if I were a betting man (and I am), this game will come down to who has the ball last. If it ended 32-30 or something in that ball park, it would not surprise me at all.
The *one* thing that might throw a monkey wrench into my score-a-palooza prediction, however, is that the Titans are weirdly way more effective against the Ravens run game than they are against every other run game in the league. Considering that Baltimore’s rushing attack is really more about scheme, timing, angles, and deception than just having the beef up front to blow people off the ball, the Titans have been able to stop that rushing attack in their last two meetings with a little scheming of their own to **screw up** those angles and timing.
Things like gap exchanges between edge rushers and linebackers to cause confusion in assignments for the offensive line, or linebackers “wrong arming” a pulling guard to create a pile up on power runs, or even interior defensive linemen staying disciplined with their eyes on the threat of Lamar keeping the ball at all times rather than following the running backs...all of those little discipline coaching points have REALLY screwed with this Baltimore offense whenever they play against Tennessee, and I am fascinated to see if that trend continues on Sunday. Especially since the Titans are ironically unable to stop any other team in the league as effectively as they do Baltimore.
Overall, this game will either be a nail biter to the bitter end that Lamar Jackson will have to win more with his arm than his legs...or the Titans will crush Baltimore’s hopes and dreams for a third time consecutive. I don’t really see any in-between options here. The Ravens need to throw, and they need to throw a lot. That is the Titans’ number on weakness by far, and it’s about time that Baltimore punished them for it.
BEARS @ SAINTS
GAME PICK: SAINTS
SPREAD PICK: BEARS (+10)
ANALYSIS: This was going to be an uphill battle for the Bears to win this game no matter what. But with the news that Roquan Smith and Darnell Mooney will be out, I just don’t see a realistic path to victory for Chicago here.
Roquan was the Bears’ best hope for containing Alvin Kamara in the pass game — considering he’s one of the most effective coverage linebackers in the entire league — while Mooney is a truly explosive deep threat that gives the Bears a quick strike option down the field. And if there’s two things that you NEED in order to be able to beat the Saints, it’s a good coverage linebacker, and an explosive passing game outside the numbers...now the Bears might not have either.
Fortunately for Chicago, however, the Saints have some absences of their own with guard Nick Easton and defensive end Trey Hendrickson both ruled out. Easton was the Saints’ best option at right guard this year in my opinion, so with him out it will now fall on rookie Cesar Ruiz to try to handle Akiem Hicks, Mario Edwards, and Brent Urban - one of the most frightening rotations of interior pass rushers in the entire league.
And with Hendrickson out as well, that is a huge hit to the Saints pass rush. Backup right end Carl Granderson is no slouch himself, so it’s not like the Saints D-Line is *doomed*, per se, but Trey’s absence will definitely be felt. With a thinner pass rush and an emphasis in the Bears offense on the quick passing and play action passing game, it honestly would not shock me to see the Saints struggle to get pressure on Trubisky.
Speaking of that quick passing game, however, consider that the Saints defense flies to the football, doesn’t miss tackles, and keeps YAC to a minimum, I really don’t think that Chicago should keep leaning on their usual game plan of short throws and a bruising run game. Those kinds of offenses play right into New Orleans’ hands.
If the Bears want to win this game - and that’s a BIG “if” - I think they should abandon the conservatism that got them nowhere last week against Green Bay, and instead take advantage of the Saints’ slightly undermanned pass rush and semi-vulnerably boundary corners to really emphasize the deep passing game. Take shots to Allen Robinson, take shots to Anthony Miller (and pray he catches it), and even get Cole Kmet involved on matchups against Malcolm Jenkins if you have to! Just whatever Matt Nagy schemes up, it better be with the end goal of putting pressure on these DBs deep down the field. That’s their one and only weakness as a defense.
Running on the Saints is pointless, and being conservative gets you nowhere in January. We already know Kamara will have a big day, we already know that Michael Thomas will get yards regardless of who is covering him, and we already know that the Saints will get plenty of points no matter what. If the Bears don’t throw early, and throw A LOT...they’ve got no chance.
I think they have the talent to cover, at least, but if they want to WIN, they need to be aggressive and hope that Mitch Trubisky can play the game of his life. Fingers crossed...
BROWNS @ STEELERS
GAME PICK: STEELERS
SPREAD PICK: STEELERS (-6)
ANALYSIS: I feel so bad for Browns fans. All things being equal, if both teams were healthy and both teams had their full coaching staffs, I honestly feel like Cleveland would win this game. The Browns offense is extremely efficient (and explosive), and at least in long yardage situations their pass rush **was** very good before Olivier Vernon’s injury last week. They had a great team - a balanced team - but now I don’t know what to expect.
Cleveland has no head coach because Kevin Stefanski is out with Covid, they have 80% of their offensive line either out or playing through injury, and they are down to one edge rusher (Garrett) that can reliably get pressure. Everything that made this team great (coaching, OL, and pass rush) now has giant question marks, and I just can’t bring myself to pick them anymore...especially not against a team as solid as Pittsburgh.
As for the Steelers, their defense is still dominant and Mike Tomlin is still a great coach, but I do have concerns about their offense going forward if they win this game. Their run game and deep ball have ranged from inconsistent to flat out nonexistent at times, leaving the Steelers with nothing but the quick passing game to move the ball. If they still can’t run the ball or stretch the field today, then we could be in store for a wee bit of an upset. But again, that is a BIG “if”, considering that Cleveland is the 25th defense in the league by DVOA and has scarcely been able to stop *anyone* throughout this whole season. That quick passing game and woefully ineffective run game from the Steelers might still be enough to put up 20+ points against a defense that porous.
Overall, I’m picking the Steelers to win and to cover today...but I’m still highly annoyed that the fans aren’t getting a truly even fight. I think of both teams were full strength...or even just if both teams had their head coaches...this could have been one of the games of the year.
Comments
After re-watching your Tampa-GB video, I can't help but think the Rams fit the criteria perfectly with their defense and a coach smart enough to utilize that strategy against Rodgers. Given this, how do you think Green Bay can counter this strategy, if at all?
Browns
