Brett Kollmann
patreon
CHAMPIONSHIP SUNDAY GAME PICKS
🕑 Added 2021-01-24 17:38:02 +0000 UTCBUCCANEERS @ PACKERS
GAME PICK: PACKERS
SPREAD PICK: BUCCANEERS (+4)
ANALYSIS: Even though the Packers got smacked by the Bucs the last time they played earlier in the season, I expect today to go much differently. Unlike that first matchup, Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are both fully healthy this time around, and over the course of the season the Packers have become much more adept at handling blitz-heavy defenses like the one that Tampa brings to the table.
Over the course of the season - most of which took place *after* that first Bucs game - Rodgers went on to throw at a 64% clip against blitzes, with 7.6 yards per attempt, 18 touchdowns, and only 4 interceptions! Those numbers are absolutely insane, obviously, and I lean more towards Rodgers maintaining that trend today than I do on the Bucs somehow striking gold for a second time.
On the other side of the ball, I fully expect the Bucs to put up a bunch of points themselves against the Packers average at best defense (17th in DVOA), especially with their run game. The Packers are 22nd in the NFL in yards per carry allowed at 4.6, so I could see them getting gashed repeatedly by that Tampa offense line that ranked 9th in adjusted line yards per carry (4.55).
Overall, this *should* be a high-scoring game on paper. I think the over/under of 53.5 will get smashed at some point in the second half. And while I do expect the Packers to ultimately win, I also think that the Bucs have enough firepower to at least cover the 4 point spread. In the end, Iβll predict the Packers to win by a field goal, 33-30.
BILLS @ CHIEFS
GAME PICK: BILLS
SPREAD PICK: BILLS (+3)
ANALYSIS:For my overall scheme and matchup thoughts on this game, check out my Film Room episode that I just released this week on this rematch β https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r5o__5ZfuA4
This game is extraordinarily hard to pick, but I am slightly favoring Buffalo to pull off the upset here. They have just the right mix of explosive offense, disciplined two-high safety shells on defense to limit Mahomes, and a resurgent front seven that has become a truly dominant run defense. I think they win by a field goal in Kansas City.
Comments
Brett Kollmann
Welp...it seems like they did want to offload Jared Goff after all lmao
William Santiago
Hey Brett. Just wanted to thank you and EJ for all the great content over the year. As a Rams fan I am bummed out your curse conveniently stopped working for the Packers gameπ. Iβll be enjoying the rest of the season but do you think if the Rams do offload Goff they could roll with Wolford next year and make some noise while waiting for that QB in 22? Also as someone who enjoyed Japanese Whiskey aged in a Sherry cask, what is a good alternative? All the best wishesπ€π½
Brett Kollmann
Missing Winfield is a huge loss obviously because heβs amazing, but even if he did play I still think Aaron would be able to have success. The main area where his absence would be felt - in my opinion at least - would be on blitz looks where the safeties have to rotate down and take receivers one on one in space. Winfield was excellent at that because heβs got good enough feet to be a starting Nickel (if they really wanted him to).
easelgames
Looks like TB will be without their starting safety.. not good
